Fantasy Soccer Betting

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series. Eintracht Frankfurt are +148 favorites (DraftKings Sportsbook) away to Werder Bremen (+175) on Wednesday, with the over 2.5 goals sitting at -136 versus +110 for the under. Fantasy Soccer Betting Guide With real money winnings paid out on a daily basis rather than at the end of the season, and bragging rights just 90 minutes away, fantasy soccer online gambling is now seriously big business. It's important that you find a top online gambling site that allows soccer betting though.

• Fantasy Football Betting Yahoo

Fantasy soccer has experienced a sharp rise over the last decade with millions of new virtual managers mauling over statistics each week eager to gain an edge. The analysis involved in fantasy soccer has strong resemblances with betting handicapping, so success in the fantasy soccer world may possibly lead to a positive return in the real world of betting. Read on to find out how playing fantasy soccer can help inform your betting predictions.

Utilise the time you spend on fantasy soccer

The title “fantasy” in fantasy soccer (or fantasy football, as it’s known in Europe) is quite misrepresentative. Both fantasy soccer and soccer betting are based around solid statistics.

For example, player values are not just made up spontaneously; they are shaped from refined and educated calculations that take into consideration a host of statistics relating to a certain player, with the player’s price displaying how well he is expected to perform over the coming season.

With an abundance of (mainly free) data available in fantasy soccer, it is a great way to practice your statistical analysis, and also help your approach to making informed and polished betting decisions when the time comes to part with real money.

Make use of stats databases

There is now an overabundance of data available on fantasy soccer websites which can also assist your sports betting choices. When placing a bet you are ultimately trying to predict the future outcome – much like fantasy soccer - and the benefits of using data to try and do this can’t be ignored.

All bettors and fantasy soccer players have displayed their opinions regarding a players’ abilities, whether it be on social media or when congregating with friends. The truth is there is no real way we can accurately observe every player and attribute them a value. But, thanks to fantasy soccer, accurate data is now easily accessible to inform bettors about the performance of teams and individual players.

Expected goals (xG) data is also readily available online. This metric is continually being used in soccer analytics and soccer betting with proven benefits. Expected goals can be largely beneficial to bettors and fantasy soccer players due to the fact it places a value on chance quality rather than goals scored (something that can be heavily influenced by randomness).

It might be a bet on the top goal scorer in the Premier League or who you make your captain in your fantasy team, using expected goals can tell us more about player performance than other commonly used metrics (actual goals, total shots, shots on target etc.). When using expecting goals models to inform your decision, it’s very important to ensure the output of these models is as accurate as possible.

Read: An analysis of different expected goals models

Knowledge is power - data driven fantasy soccer advice

Like betting, top fantasy players analyse and crunch numbers in search of an edge whilst substandard or inexperienced players go with their gut instinct or make one-dimensional and inexperienced decisions.

Tapping into freely available data is a great way to advance your awareness of both soccer betting and helping with your fantasy soccer selections so that in the long run help you make more informed decisions instead of going with your hunch.

Read: How to make accurate soccer predictions.

When analysing some of this data 3-4-3 is the most attractive formation. Averaging 50.5 points per game, managers should look to a 3-4-3 for season-long success. The 5-4-1 formation might be one to avoid, accumulating an average score of 46.2 points per game

Try to avoid purchasing low-cost defenders (under £4.5m). These “bargains” only average 2.85 points a game. This is far inferior to the second lowest point scorers (midfielders under £6.5m, average 3.09 points per match).

It is intelligent to choose full-backs (preferably more attacking ones) over centre-backs. Averaging 3.33 a match, full-backs outperform centre-backs, who average 3.17 points a game. Selecting attacking wing-backs rather than central defenders in your line-up will also help you rack up additional points on your rivals throughout the season.

Wingers on average in the 2017/18 season scored more points than central midfielders. Wide men last season accumulated on average 4.16 points a game, while central midfielders produced a return of just 3.42. Additionally having multiple penalty/set piece takers will only increase your likelihood of outsmarting your friends come the end of the season.

Compare odds to player pricing to make informed selections

There are many examples to follow for fantasy soccer players to make informed decisions. Although there are numerous variables to consider, it would be a shrewd tactic to follow the bookmaker’s odds to make your selections.

In order to identify value when placing a bet bettors will need to decide their own probability of an event occurring. So, by comparing bookmaker’s odds for the Premier League top goalscorer market for example, managers will get a more well-defined logic to how well a player is likely to perform.

For example, if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang of Arsenal is, on average, the third-lowest odds to be the Premier League top goalscorer with bookmakers yet is priced as the fifth highest valued striker in the fantasy soccer pricing ladder, this may suggest he is a value pick.

Now you’re all set don’t forget to get the best Premier League odds and betting advice all season long with Pinnacle.

Sign up here to make the most of Pinnacle’s value betting.

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6

Tracking my predictions: 2-2-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Welp, so far my predictions have been either really good or downright awful. The two that were right were so much better than what I had predicted, those guys likely won games for owners. On the other hand, the pair that were wrong were laughably bad. This is why they’re gambles, though. Some will miss their mark by a wide margin, and the best one can do is learn from it and move forward. So, that’s what we’ll do heading into Week 6…

Detroit Lions RB D’Andre Swift at Jacksonville Jaguars

This week, I really wanted to include Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis as my pick, but his value completely depends on the health of John Brown (calf), and this being a Monday night game made me shy away. There’s too much volatility for recommending a player whose path to playing time is determined well after gamers are required to set their lineups. In the event Brown sits again, get Davis into lineups … I won’t track him as part of my overall recommendations.

Swift ranks as an RB2 consideration for me this week, because the Jaguars have an all-around shaky defense of his position. The Lions come back from their bye week, and one has to presume they spent extra time going over the game plan, but it’s the Lions, so, yeah, let’s not bank on that being the case.

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What one should expect is more Swift. He has a month under his belt as an NFL rookie without a formal offseason, and we’ve seen enough good mixed in with the bad to give him some credit. The Lions more or less have moved on from Kerryon Johnson at this point, and the only way Adrian Peterson is a threat is if the ball is inside of the 5-yard line. Swift also has value in the red zone, though, and his versatility as a receiving option is crucial.

The Jaguars have permitted running backs an average of 6.2 receptions (10th most) for 43.8 yards (14th) in five weeks. Two of those catches have scored, which translates to being the eighth-highest rate. While Swift is less likely to see work around the stripe as a runner, it’s not out of the question, especially if the offense is ready to begin a transition to him as the featured weapon in the backfield. I cannot say with confidence that will happen, but I’ve been encouraged by his ability to produce with limited work, which suggests Swift will be fine even if this isn’t the week he sees significantly more touches.

Additionally, it’s the first matchup he has faced that has been favorable. Swift has posted at least 11.3 PPR points in three of his four games in spite of having faced tough opponents, so the gamble here really is how much more will he produce. Jacksonville has yielded 104.2 rushing yards a game (11th) and four rushing TDs in five outings. Just two weeks ago, Joe Mixon enjoyed a breakout game based on versatility, and we saw the same with Nyheim Hines in Week 1.

Fantasy Football Betting Yahoo

My projection: 9 attempts, 48 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 44 yards, 1 TD (21.2 PPR points)