Under Over Game Tennis

Identifying players who can perform at a much higher level than their ‘average’ level is very useful for bettors, particularly those who look to back underdogs pre-match. This article endeavours to give both player information and some ranking trends to bettors in their quest to pick underdogs to either win the match or cover the +1.5 set handicap.

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2. The person at the front of the line passes the ball over their head followed by the person behind them taking the ball and passing it through their own legs to the next person. The ball continues going over then under until it reaches the person at the back of the line.

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Betting on the underdog

Bettors who believe that they have uncovered an underdog with pre-match value have a number of betting options in which they can use to back underdog supremacy.

Firstly, and the most obvious, they can back the underdog to win the match outright. The advantage of this is they will gain a very nice return relative to their stake if this position wins, with the disadvantage being that if the underdog performs well and keeps the match close, perhaps taking a set or leading, they are unrewarded for what is still a knowledgeable selection.

Another option bettors have is to back over the game totals line. This benefits situations where the underdog keeps the match closer than the market expected, but has an obvious drawback too - if the underdog you felt was value pre-match wins easily under the game totals line, you lose the bet despite being spot on with your analysis of them being value.

The final and, in the opinion of many, best option is to back the underdog on some form of handicap. This typically offers broadly similar prices to the game totals line but rewards picking the underdog if they win easily, or even keep the match close.

Ranking the underdogs

In the 12 months from 15th October 2014 to 15th October 2015, the current ATP players ranked 51-100, when underdogs, won 322/914 completed matches (35.2%), and took at least a set in these matches 541/914 (59.2%).

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This fell for those currently ranked between 51 and 75 in the world - these players won 158/469 (33.7%) matches and at least a set on 264/469 (56.3%) occasions.

Understandably based on this, players ranked 76 to 100 fared better than the 51-100 rank average, winning 164/445 (36.9%) of matches and at least a set 277/445 (62.2%).

Reasons for this ranking discrepancy are difficult to establish. There may be an argument that the higher ranked subset are underdogs against ‘better’players than the lower ranked bracket, but this shouldn’t have any effect unless the ‘better’player is consistently under-rated by the market, which is relatively unlikely.

The following table illustrates the best 51-100 ranked players for winning matches as an underdog in the last 12 months (minimum 15 completed matches).

Nikoloz Basilashvili’s performances as the underdog in the last 12 months have been outstanding. It appears that he’s currently under-rated by the market in matches against ‘better’players and looks to have a solid chance of improving his ranking, 93, in the future.

French veteran Paul-Henri Mathieu, new Brit Aljaz Bedene and the Australian John Millman, who has broken onto the ATP main tour in recent months after Challenger success, are the remaining players who have won at least 50% of the time as an underdog in the sample.

In the cases of Mathieu and Bedene, these players having a potentially ‘high’high level looks likely, although the market may have priced in fitness concerns on various occasions in the case of Mathieu. The market may still be catching up with Millman at this level.

Underdogs on the handicap

The table below shows the players ranked 51-100 in the ATP who were best at covering the +1.5 set handicap line as underdogs in the last 12 months (minimum 15 completed matches).

Unsurprisingly, match win leaders Mathieu, Basilashvili and Millman also led this category, although Bedene is not included - strangely in all of the Brit’s matches as an underdog in the last 12 months he either won the match or lost in straight sets. In his case bettors may prefer taking the bigger odds on the match win than the reduced price on the set handicap.

Certainly, if the above players are identified by a bettor as value pre-match, backing them to take at least a set in the match looks a very solid plan indeed.

However, this is not the case for the players in the table below - these ten players had the worst results for winning at least a set in the last 12 months.

Marco Cecchinato overwhelmingly has the worst record for claiming at least a set in matches where he started as the underdog - in just 23.5% of matches did he take a set.

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This is particularly interesting considering the Italian has a very strong record in Challengers. This data, combined with his excellent clay court Challenger stats and win-loss record at that level, would appear to indicate that he is a ‘flat-track’ bully - a player who finds it easy to gain wins over ‘worse’ players, but struggles badly against ‘better’. Essentially it would appear that he has a decent average level and he rarely deviates from that.

It’s reasonable to put the likes of Tim Smyczek and Paolo Lorenzi into that bracket as well - they both boast excellent Challenger records but find the step up to ATP level difficult.

Slightly further down the list, Santiago Giraldo and Lukas Rosol have been out of form for the majority of this season and haven’t impressed, whilst several of the players a little further down the list have been regularly accused on social media of ‘motivation’ issues when losing in matches.

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The data in this article clearly indicates that establishing player tendencies is very useful for handicap betting, with all players certainly not equal when it comes to backing underdogs either for the outright match win, or on the +1.5 set handicap. There is certainly value to be had when betting on the underdog on the handicap, but, as always, bettors must pick their spots and use data to help them on their way.

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