World Cup Betting Strategy
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When gambling on individual soccer match results for singles, doubles, trebles, accumulators, correct score, double result, first or last scorer betting, specials or statistic type betting – number of corners, yellow or red cards for example, it is sometimes necessary to do a little research before placing your bet.
Here are some tips and suggestions on what to check before betting on soccer matches:
1. League position
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The most obvious tip. We often check the league table from the best division in our own country however we do not always know the league positions of teams in the lower divisions or other countries. Be sure to check the league positions of teams before making a bet because there are often surprises – RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga and Huddersfield Town in The Championship last season.
World Cup Betting Strategy
We sometimes think a team is good because they are famous but that does not always mean they are doing well at this time. Also consider that a team in 6th is not always going to beat a team that is 14th – especially away and if there are only 4 points between them.
Use the league table to check things like the number of Home and Away wins and the number of draws. As the season gets going you can see patterns in which teams draw much more often than others or which teams never win away.
The goal difference is also significant as you can see which teams are scoring many goals to those who are conceding many goals and you can see which teams have very strong defenses are more likely to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 than they are 2-1 or 3-1 or 4-2 for example.
2. Fixtures
Look at the fixture lists of individual teams in advance because teams often under-perform or over-perform against certain teams at certain times of the season. For example when a team near the bottom is scheduled to play their next three matches against three teams in the top 4, there will often be at least one draw.
Look at when teams may have an easy or difficult month – when are the top teams (and bottom teams) playing each other for example.
Consider the “International breaks” which are for International friendlies and world cup qualifiers, etc. These can often break a team’s form and star players often get injured.
The number of games top teams play over a season can lead to fixture “congestion” or “pile-up” – this is when teams have to play many games in a short time. Many mangers running successful teams complain about this. They will often rest key players and play young players with little experience against weaker teams with surprising results.
Teams also often perform below their best in the League games following Champions League games where they will often draw against teams they usually beat.
3. Past Results
If a team has won five games in a row in any league then start gambling on the draw.
If a team has lost five games in a row start gambling on the draw.
The longer an unbeaten run lasts the closer it is to ending.
The longer a winless run lasts the closer it is to ending.
4. Statistics
Check information about “Derby” games and “Bitter rivals” games. Derbies are games between two teams from the same city (Real Madrid vs Athletico Madrid) and Bitter Rivals games are games between teams who have a history of competiveness (Manchester United vs Liverpool) so It is often a good idea to check the head to head record – that is separate statistics of the number of wins / losses and draws between the two teams since the two clubs formed.
These games are also highly emotional and so you will often see a higher number of yellow and red cards as well penalties awarded scored and saved.
“Bogey” teams – These are teams that for some magical reason often lose or fail to get a result against one specific team year after year, season after season – often in dramatic situations even though there may be a huge gap between the teams’ league positions – a modern example is Crystal Palace who are currently Liverpool’s “bogey” team. Ask friends and check previous results to identify different clubs’ bogey team!
Win, Loss and Draws runs – Check to see the longest win, loss and draw streaks to help choose when that team may win, lose or draw. If a team draws 4 games in a row and the longest streak it has for drawing is 5 then it is highly unlikely that the streak is going to continue.
Check the fair play league table for teams with good and poor discipline to help you decide which teams and games to gamble on in the yellow and red card markets.
5. Weather
Think about the season (Winter / Summer), the location of the match and the time of the match.
Teams often have players from all over the world – and some of those players often find it difficult to adapt to the climate or weather of the country where they play. The Brazilians and Spanish players do not enjoy playing in North East England on a Tuesday night in December while the English players find it hard to play in 30c degrees on a sunny Saturday afternoon in May.
Consider the pitch and stadium conditions – a dryer pitch leads makes the ball bounce higher, a humid atmosphere makes the ball travel further and faster. Think about the wind and the rain, teams that play a quick passing game love a wet playing surface and teams that play a long ball game do not play well on extremely windy days.
Distances travelled for teams playing away games can affect teams too. Which teams travel by bus, train or plane? Which are more comfortable. How long are the journeys? How far apart are the cities the teams play? If a team from the South of England has to travel to Israel to play on Thursday in the Europa cup and then travel to the North of England to play on Sunday this is going to affect the team’s preparations dramatically for both games.
6. Kick Off time
Morning, lunchtime, regular, evening and night time kick off times can also affect team performances (this is also connected to fixtures) for example, sometimes a team playing in a European match on Wednesday evening has to play at lunchtime on Saturday. This means they have less time to rest, recover and train than teams that play on Sunday afternoon. Early kick offs mean the players have to adapt their sleeping patterns and rest periods which can affect performance. Monitor which teams seem to perform better or worse at different times on different days.
7. Manager Changed
Managers are changed more often than ever these days and of course this generally follows a very bad run of results, a very poor league position or failure to meet the board or the fans’ expectations. When the new manager takes over we often see a dramatic improvement in the teams’ effort, performance and results in the short-term. Look out for value bets at times when the manager has left the club or a new one has been appointed.
8. Key players
Think about key players in lots of teams, not just the top teams. If you play fantasy football then you’ll also know about players from other teams – the defenders that take free kicks and penalties. The midfielders that get lots of assists but never seem to score. The players that get booked every game.
Consider “under-rated” and “over-rated players” – different TV pundits, journalists and fans over value or under value players because of their reputation, age, loyalty or disloyalty - be your own judge – your winning and losing bets will help decide for you which players are good or not.
9. Injuries
Different players get “Serious” or “Niggling” injuries either often or almost never, some need operations, players coming back from injury are not always mentally strong and so may perform less well. Teams can also suffer dramatically from players being injured especially in key positions such as striker or central defense.
10. Penalties awarded
It is claimed by some fans that their team never gets awarded penalties or that the opposing teams always get awarded them or that the away team never gets awarded penalties at certain stadiums. Check the statistics for different teams.
Attacking teams are more likely to win penalties than defensive teams and attacking teams are more likely to concede penalties than defensive teams (this is because attacking players are not good at defending or tackling while defensive teams are trained not to concede penalties.)
11. Style of play
World Cup Betting Strategy
Consider the “Formations” (5-4-1, 4-3-3, 4-4-2, 3-5-2) and the tactics of the different teams. It was noted that Chelsea’s long winning streak in the 2016/17 season started with a change in formation after losing to Arsenal.
An attacking pressing team will score far more goals per game than a defensive long ball team.
12. Transfer windows
Think about the transfer window for the different leagues and countries, players can become unsettled and play badly while others may put in extra effort. Players moving in and out of clubs can have both a positive or negative effect on the form of a team especially in the January transfer window.
Final word
Predicting football match result, score, goalscorer, number of corners etc is not possible with using only one information. In order to find the edge and value, research a lot of things like above from website, newspaper, and so on and imagine a scenario of the match that you try to bet. It's the good practice to improve your betting brain.
Some online bookmakers such as William Hill provide useful statistical data on their site for your help. We recommend you to use it before you bet, and we hope you'll be a good punter. Good luck!
Get more World Cup betting information including betting bonuses, World Cup odds and our famous World Cup picks, which in 2006 earned $100 bettors over ten times their initial investment. ($100 bettors earned $1,820 click here for details)
The good news for FIFA World Cup Germany punters is that with the variety of offshore betting parlors you can lay your hard won cash on the 2006 Golden Boot Trophy, awarded to the top goal scorer in FIFA World Cup Germany play, the bad news is that it is one damn hard proposition to nail.
Despite the fact you have a better chance of losing than cashing a winning ticket, the Golden Boot is one of the most popular bets (and when you see the odds you'll know why) in FIFA World Cup Germany competition. For those who don't like eating chalk, a small wager can reap huge rewards and keep even those casual gamblers on FIFA World Cup Germany interested. Essentially if the guy you pick scores the most goals you win your wager. It is easy to explain but tough to win. There are some steps you can take, though, to help increase the odds of winning this wager.
Keep in mind if you decide to punt a fiver on the Golden Boot, there have been 15 World Cup competitions over 65 years yet only 20 players have achieved the distinction of highest goal scorer. In the last ten World Cup competitions the winner of the Golden boot has scored at least six goals. When handicapping this proposition direct your focus on striker. I wouldn't look at any other position when researching this proposition as it has been the only position to cash a ticket over the same time period.
One popular strategy has been to take the striker from the favored team to win the World Cup to win the Golden Boot. Not a bad strategy when you think about it; the deeper into the draws a country gets the more opportunities their strikers get to score goals. This year Brazil is the odds on favorite to win FIFA World Cup Germany. The 'Samba Kings' opened at 4.2/1 to win and have since dropped to 3/1. Brazilian striker and defending 2002 Golden Boot Trophy winner Ronaldo is currently listed at 9/1 to win the Golden Boot in 2006. Considering Brazil is favored to win and gets Australia, Japan and Croatia in their first round draw makes this a good short odds play.
However, this strategy does not always pay dividends; take for instance the co-winners of the 1994 Golden Boot award. Oleg Selenko of Russia and Hristo Stoikov of Bulgaria scored six goals each. The bet paid off at 80/1. No scorer has topped the amazing feat of 10 goals scored by the power lifter who built Bayern, Gerd 'the bomber' Mueller, of West Germany. In 2002 Brazilian phenom Ronaldo managed to come close with 8 goals on his team's 7-game Championship run; but Brazil had China in their draw.
Another angle you'll want to look at is the host country trend. Six of seven teams who have won a World Championship did so at home. Surprisingly, the only country that lost on their home pitch was super power Brazil in 1950. Both England (1966) and France (1998) won their lone World Cup championships at home.
Germany is the host country in 2006 (and finished runner-up in 2002) so it makes sense to look at German marksman Lukas Podolski. At 25/1 odds, the striker is definitely worth consideration as a mid-range long shot.
By cross referencing host country trend against the probability of a certain striker's team making it deep into the tournament you can cut the field substantially. For instance, England has only produced one Golden Boot winner. Gary Lineker won the Golden Boot for the British at Mexico in 1986 with 6 goals. Armed with this information you can decide whether or not you want to back an English player. Michael Owen opened at 20/1 but those odds have since dropped to 12/1 with teammate Wayne Rooney set at 18/1.
Past performance in this milieu by a player is an important component handicapping this proposition. For this reason I look at the hot players during FIFA World Cup qualifiers. One of the top strikers in the 2006 qualifiers was Netherlands' Ruud van Nistelrooy who notched seven goals in the qualifiers (and has scored 11 goals for Manchester United this year). The Netherlands are in Group C and will have to face Argentina, but they also play Ivory Coast and Serbia and Montenegro.
Van Nistelrooy is listed quite rightly at 14/1 odds and will be a good play if you think the Netherlands can make it deeper into the draw. Historically, Europeans have dominated Golden Boot betting; of the last ten Golden Boot winners, eight have been Europeans. Conversely, looking at the United Kingdom's dismal goal scoring performance in the qualifiers getting by on 1-0 wins will Ericksson's team score enough goals to produce a serious challenger? Certainly David Beckham at 80/1 odds is not a realistic wager.
No. 2 ranked Czech Republic will feature Milan Baros. However, the Czechs only scored 33 goals in the qualifiers and their style of play is not suited toward Baros winning. I think he has an outside shot at winning the Golden Boot in 2006. Baros is listed at 40/1 odds. In UEFA Euro 2004 Baros won the golden boot with five goals in the competition. Baros is consistently dangerous and was only out-highlighted by Britain's Wayne Rooney with his stellar performance and four goals.
My money, however, is on the player with the best nickname, to his legions of fans he is known as El Zorro del Desierto, the Desert Fox. You'll find him listed as Jared Borgetti. Mexico's No.9 was installed at 50/1 on this proposition bet. Despite the longish odds, Borgetti scored 14 goals and bested Brazil's Ronaldo who scored ten goals. Furthermore, Mexico scored the most goals of any team in the FIFA 2006 World Cup Germany qualifiers with 67 goals.
With head coach Ricardo Lavolpe's attacking style and the supporting cast of players in strikers Jaime Lozano and Francisco Fonseca makes the Desert Fox my play to win the Golden Boot. I am going to buffer the One Unit 50/1 play on El Zorro del Desierto with 5.5 unit 9/1 play on Brazilian Renaldo to win the 2006 FIFA Golden Boot Trophy. Listed below are current odds for the Golden Boot Trophy.
Current Golden Boot Betting Odds
| Ronaldo 9/1 | Defoe, J 66/1 | Tevez 33/1 |
| Baptista 50/1 | Rebrov 100/1 | Riquelme 66/1 |
| Zurawski, M 100/1 | Streller 125/1 | Vonlathen 150/1 |
| Adriano 10/1 | Kuranyi 25/1 | Baros 40/1 |
| Del Piero 50/1 | Villa 66/1 | Juninho Pernambucano 66/1 |
| Frankowski, T 100/1 | Santa Cruz 125/1 | Solari 150/1 |
| Owen 12/1 | Lampard 28/1 | Van Der Vaart, R 40/1 |
| Morientes 50/1 | Drogba 66/1 | Van Persie 66/1 |
| Cole, J 100/1 | Joaquin 125/1 | Aloisi 150/1 |
| Van Nistelrooy 14/1 | Torres, F 33/1 | Raul 40/1 |
| Gerrard 50/1 | Reyes 66/1 | Deco 66/1 |
| Anelka 100/1 | Vieri 33/1 | Kewell 150/1 |
| Henry 14/1 | Stankovic 125/1 | Kaka 40/1 |
| Cassano 50/1 | Pauleta 33/1 | Kezman 66/1 |
| Govu 100/1 | Vennegoor 66/1 | Yorke 200/1 |
| Crespo 16/1 | Ahn Jung Hwan 125/1 | Robinho 40/1 |
| Cruz 50/1 | Ballack 33/1 | Figueroa 80/1 |
| Pires 100/1 | Inzaghi 66/1 | Jones, K 200/1 |
| Trezeguet 16/1 | Carlos, R 150/1 | Zidane 40/1 |
| Webo 50/1 | Iaquinta 33/1 | Koller 80/1 |
| Miccoli 100/1 | Essien, M 150/1 | Cuevas 200/1 |
| Ronaldinho 16/1 | Podloski 33/1 | Ibrahimovic 40/1 |
| Klasnic 50/1 | Luis Garcia 66/1 | Aruna 80/1 |
| D'Alessandro 100/1 | Viduka 150/1 | Ljuboja 200/1 |
| Rooney 18/1 | Kuyt 33/1 | C Ronaldo 40/1 |
| Olic 100/1 | Olisadebe 66/1 | Postiga 80/1 |
| Shevchenko 20/1 | Robben 150/1 | Gygax 200/1 |
| Borgetti 50/1 | Makaay 33/1 | Nedved, P 50/1 |
| Giuly 100/1 | Elmander 66/1 | Balaban 80/1 |
| Toni L 25/1 | Frei 150/1 | McBride 200/1 |
| Totti 66/1 | Defoe, J 66/1 | Messi, L 50/1 |
| Ezquerro 100/1 | Rebrov 100/1 | Beckham 80/1 |
| Ronaldo 9/1 | Streller 125/1 | Asamoah 250/1 |
| Baptista 50/1 | Kuranyi 25/1 | Larsson 50/1 |
| Zurawski, M 100/1 | Villa 66/1 | Wiltord 80/1 |
| Heinz 66/1 | Gomes N 50/1 | Cisse 66/1 |
| Prso 66/1 | Gilardino 25/1 | Klose 25/1 |
World Cup Betting Strategy Against
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